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[COVID-19] Corona Virus [Your local reports]
RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
Happy Easter for those who celebrate it. Normally in Australia Easter is a time of road trips, and big family gatherings with lots of chocolate and seafood (horrible combination) and long afternoon lunches which drag on into the evening. Not this year - The cops are out and about to make sure we stay indoors and safe.

It looks like we have bent the curve pretty thoroughly, looking at this one chart in isolation:

[attachment=21756]

But of course you can't just take one curve and say that paints the whole picture. Here is a more detailed look at the Australian statistics, putting that curve into context.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/c...a/12060704

We're not in a bad situation, but any complacency (especially over Easter) could quickly see a jump in cases and reverse the downward trend.

The cruise ship effect is still rippling through the population - here in WA 37% of all cases have come directly from cruise ships.
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RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
Happy Easter DeepBreathing and the rest of AB.

Like I've said a few times in posts lately: Stay safe n sane.
Dave

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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEBSITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.
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RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
Compared to the expectations of this pandemic, and even normal seasonal flu, we really got ahead of this one early.  Just as new cases were accelerating bars and restaurants closed and a nearly complete shutdown followed the next week. Most locations are at or near the peak, and some places are definitely past it. The missing data now is recovery because testing is still not at levels that allows recovery testing, or perhaps it doesn't fit the narrative.  

The big news is hospitalizations are down, ICU capacity was never exceeded and won't be, and no one that needed a ventilator in the U.S. went without one.  The huge emergency hospitals built in New York and New Orleans are going mostly unused.  The vast majority of the country experienced very limited infection rates.  I have followed closely the spread in Pennsylvania, where the most infections by far are in the southeast quadrant around Philadelphia.  Suffice to say, if you have mass transit, then the virus spread in your area.  

I have mentioned elsewhere we are on the downward trend for virus spread. The cumulative cases is a very poor metric to measure the status of any infection because it continues to go up until it just flattens out.  In PA, it is still rising, but continues to deflect to the right so that it is not increasing rapidly.  We are over a month into this and the total cumulative cases is still just 20,000 with 338 deaths.  With our population of 8.2 million that is an infection rate of 0.2% or one in 410 persons (50 per million) to date. The death rate is a lagging indicator, and is going to go higher.  We started with an exponential disease increase of over 22% per day, but since March 21, that rate has steadily fallen to a current 8.2% per day.  I look forward to when that reaches zero and turns negative, and think we should be close by the end of the month. See the chart and follow the trend of new case rate since March 21.  New cases are not currently replacing recoveries (based on new hospitalizations vs released), and in this part of the country, hospitals are nearly empty, and laying off non-emergency and ICU staff, and elective surgery centers are dark and empty. The use of Hydroxychloroquine and Z-pak appears to be keeping many out of the ICU and early trials show this to be an effective therapy when properly dosed and especially when used early.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=21762]
Sleeprider
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RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
I have tracked the progress of the Covid-19 virus in PA since March 11. Here is a graph of the total cases and new cases per day projected on a logarithmic scale.  After 30 days, the flattening shows we are getting close to the end of this. Note the total and new cases are both still increasing in number, but we are very near a peak new cases.  Locally, things will get better from here.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=21763]
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.
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RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
Finally (I promise), here is a comparison between a projection I made on April 2 of the new cases per day through April 10 based on the current 21% increase per day, and what actually happened. Note the difference in scale on these charts.

Projected cases March 30 - April 10 2020

[Image: attachment.php?aid=21524]

Actual Results March 30 - April 10

[Image: attachment.php?aid=21764]
Sleeprider
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.
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RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
Thanks, Sleeprider.

Local FM morning news on News Talk 103.7 FM WEEO McConnellsburg, PA, USA: announcement while I was waking up that some/all grocery stores to begin requiring masks to enter, possibly other stores to follow with similar requirement. No shirt, no shoes, no mask, no service. I see Washington, D.C. and NJ do require this, PA is advising residents to wear masks while out and about.

DC requiring grocery shoppers to mask https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local...g/2269051/

Ditto on grocery shoppers to mask in NJ https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch...ery-stores

A PA PDF about cloth and homemade masks https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/Documen...idance.pdf

PA Gov. Tom Wolf closes school for remainder of year. https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/gov...emic-year/
Dave

OSCAR
Standard OSCAR Chart Order
Mask Primer
Dealing With A DME
Soft Cervical Collar Wiki
INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEBSITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.
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RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
Oh, please...   Rolleyes 

You're using a logarithmic chart to determine whether we're at a peak or not?  Seriously??

I'm sorry, but using logarithmic charts in this manner is a favorite mechanism used by those who want to skew data to appear like it's favoring a pre-determined outcome.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misleading...er_scaling

The Y-axis on your logarithmic chart is skewed by orders of magnitude... and you expect that to accurately predict a flattening of the curve?  Do you not even realize that by using a logarithmic chart like this, you can flatten any curve by simply increasing the scale of numbers on the Y-axis?

And you think that's an accurate way to display reality?

Even on your linear chart titled "Actual Results March 30 - April 10", the trend line is still UP, not down.  You've got two data points (around April 6 & 10) showing a slight temporary fluctuation (decrease), and that's supposed to show a flattening of the curve?

You had the exact same type of temporary fluctuation (decrease) for two other data points (around Mar 27 & 29), and to "call it it peak" at that point would have proven foolish, since all you had to do is wait 2-3 days later and the curve resumed it's upward trend.

I guess I don't understand the need to display data deceptively in order to give us all a "hope".  We need to show people the reality of this stuff, not offer them charts that are clearly skewed to give a distorted view.

Indeed, the curve will flatten out at some point, but to say that you know it's already done so, or even that you know that it's nearing the top of the curve right now based upon the data in those charts is a bit over-the-top, IMHO.

You're zooming in way too closely, concentrating on daily (or even weekly) fluctuations to determine a trend.  That's bad statistical projection.  You have to zoom out, and wait until you get much more data before declaring any flattening of the curve.  You know this is true even from looking at OSCAR data on CPAP machines.... a one or two-day fluctuation in AHI, when there are numerous changing variables other than pressures, is not necessarily showing a trend.  Zoom out my friend, zoom out.   Bigwink  (but you can't zoom out unless and until you have enough data to zoom out with).  Way too early to declare victory over the curve, I'm afraid.

I know that eventually, you will be correct and the curve will reach a peak at some point.  But we cannot accurately confirm such a thing using the small datasets that currently make up your charts above.

Just sayin'.... Thinking-about
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
Supersleeper. The charts I have posted are an accurate representation of the facts as obtained from the PA Dept of Health.  Throughout this thread, I have presented data in a linear graph, however that graph loses resolution of the new cases as the scales get larger, and in this case I am showing related data that is on very different scales. I clearly pointed to this being logarithmic.  The use of a log scale is both accepted and preferred by professionals https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/174/3/376/247288  If I really wanted to show you how small the risk of Coronavirus is, I would have plotted on a linear scale against the population of Pennsylvaina like this.  BTW a log scale graph looks the same regardless of how large the scale gets, but here is a fair representation of the risk of being a Pennsylvanian, against the total cumulative cases to date.  Compare that to the log scale.  Now which one is deceptive or provides better information?

CoronaVirus Risk in PA Linear

[Image: attachment.php?aid=21788]

CoronaVirus Risk in PA Log Scale

[Image: attachment.php?aid=21789]

Here is your linear chart and the point I was trying to make is lost. The new cases per day is currently at its peak.  There are a lot of new cases at nearly 1800 per day, but we have reached an important point that renders poorly on a linear scale.  Even on the linear scale, the rate of increase has greatly slowed (less slope), but as I said in my post, it will continue to rise, but shallow as this current trends continue, as shown in the posts preceding the one you seem to object to so strenuously.

I would argue that the use of a linear chart is the one that is deceptive in this case, and fails to show the nuances of an emerging trend, and is more alarming to most people.   There are many ways to present data, and I have some experience in doing this from a career of environmental risk assessment.  Let me repeat, I cannot accurately show or interpret when the new cases take a downward trend on a linear scale that will soon make the new cases per day look like a flat line.  That is my only motive in displaying this data on a log scale.


[Image: attachment.php?aid=21787]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=21763]
Sleeprider
Apnea Board Moderator
www.ApneaBoard.com

____________________________________________
Download OSCAR Software
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Organize your OSCAR Charts
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.
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RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
Hi Sleeprider,
Thanks for the positivity. Unfortunately, quite often you can make statistics show your own point of view.
I believe that the measures taken have significantly 'flattened' the curve which is what we set out to do, but I am not sure we are past the peak.
On Mar 30 there were 693 new cases, representing 20% rate increase. On Apr 10 there were 1793 new cases, representing 8.2% increase. So, while the rate of increase has slowed, the actual numbers of new cases has continued to go up. Until the numbers of new cases stops increasing and shows a consistent and considerable decline you will not convince me that you are past the apex.
I have been following the data in my area. What I notice is that the number of tests completed correlates closely with how many new cases we get. Are there always the same number of tests completed in Pa?
From above...
"The use of Hydroxychloroquine and Z-pak appears to be keeping many out of the ICU and early trials show this to be an effective therapy when properly dosed and especially when used early."
I went looking for reports about this but could not find any. Could you point me to something?
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RE: Corona Virus [Your local reports]
Pun is not intended, but I am sick of one area about this COVID-19 pandemic. I do not believe any reports we the public have gotten, and are currently getting, from any source are entirely true and accurate. This is not to say I don't believe the virus exists, or that people were sick, or that I doubt that some have died.

I believe the news media really no longer knows how to report truth without adding bias in some way, shape, or reason. I am doubtful any of these charts from the supposed experts giving the pandemic statistics contain only the facts. This is not meaning the Apnea Board members that post charts or discuss any aspect of the pandemic. Those outside this forum that get in the spotlight to inform us how bad this situation is, but then the next minute it's trending better that we expected. On top of that, I don't think any of the projected numbers were based on a proper method that allowed some bias, political or otherwise, to skew projections in crazy and not realistic fashion.

I am not saying it's a President Trump issue; actually I think the President is handling it as best as I think he's capable of doing. I think there's some errors with his support staff sometimes. This isn't necessarily a Republican or Democrat issue either. I am saying there's a fundamental flaw with news reports and those behind it. I am just fed up with being lied to by all the trash news on every source.

Happy Friday evening.
Dave

OSCAR
Standard OSCAR Chart Order
Mask Primer
Dealing With A DME
Soft Cervical Collar Wiki
INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEBSITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.
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