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[COVID-19] Coronavirus REAL death rates
#1
Coronavirus REAL death rates
PLEASE NOTE:  Many people (including those in the press) are figuring the death rates for COVID-19 incorrectly.

You cannot simply take the number of current deaths and divide by the number of current infections.  That will lead to a very low, inaccurate death rate percentage.  

Let me explain...

EXAMPLE ONE (the incorrect method):

Let's take a sample group of infected people (namely a sample group of 100 people who are infected as of today).

So, let's assume that today is April 1st, and we have 100 infected people, and 2 deaths, currently.  The way the press and others are incorrectly figuring the death rate is to divide 2 by 100, or in other words, a result of a 2% death rate.  THIS IS INCORRECT.  Why??  Because we don't have all the needed data yet... allow me to explain...

There are only TWO outcomes when a patient becomes infected with COVID-19... That's it - 2 possible outcomes, which are:

1.  They recover from the virus (either total recovery or lingering after-effects where they do not die)

or

2.  They die from the virus.

Since it can take 4-6 weeks after contracting the virus for people to die, we cannot use today's deaths in the numerator and compare it with today's infections in the denominator. 

Essentially to come up with a VALID death rate, you can only consider cases where there have been an OUTCOME (or a "closed case" in medical terms).  In other words, to get the actual death rate, you have to take TODAY's number of infected and compare it to the number of dead 30-45 days from now, which is approximately how long it takes to have a specific outcome in most cases (either recovery or death).

EXAMPLE TWO (the correct method):

Again, assuming we're starting with the April 1st date here...

On April 1st, we have 100 people infected.  That 100 number is what goes into the denominator.

We MUST wait until 30-45 days later, since that's how long it can take to determine the outcome for those 100 people.
Let's be optimistic here and say that we'll know the outcomes in most cases within 30 days.

So, 30 days later (on April 30th), we have 100 outcomes for the group (let's say 80 of them recover and 20 die).

So now, to get an accurate death rate, you consider ONLY those people with outcomes.  To get the accurate death rate, you would divide 20 by the original 100 people... in other words 20 ÷ 100 = .20    In other words, the actual accurate calculation becomes a 20% death rate.

THAT is the proper way to figure the death rate of COVID-19 or any other virus.

NOW, with that said, I direct your attention to Italy.  Take a look at their numbers today (March 24, 2020) from this page:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/italy/

Specifically, this chart:
[Image: attachment.php?aid=21312]

Please note that using the CORRECT method listed above, the current death rate for COVID-19 patients in Italy is a whopping 45%.

And that's a 45% death rate for all age groups, not just the elderly.

Let that sink in for a while. Unsure


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SuperSleeper
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#2
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
And yes, I realize that as testing increases, so will the denominator increase.  But even then, you can't simply take next week's total deaths and divide it by next week's total infected.  That as well is incorrect... you have to wait until all of these new cases have an OUTCOME (or become a "closed case") 30-45 days later.

So either way, the death rates being reported are simply wrong and way under-stated.

This is what the medical authorities know, and this is why we're seeing such a severe governmental response to all of this.

You don't see entire nations SHUTTING THEIR ENTIRE ECONOMIES down for a 3-4% death rate, folks.

Right now, we're basically on the same trajectory as Italy here in the U.S., especially in New York City, where you'll start seeing the Italy-level of infections & deaths within a short time.
SuperSleeper
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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#3
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
Somebody please tell me I'm wrong here. 

I would REALLY like to be wrong, but I don't think I am...

Thinking-about
SuperSleeper
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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#4
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
You are correct, you have to follow a group of patients through to conclusion to determine the death rate. One more thing, you also need to include the non-tested sent home population that are not effectively tracked and survive. That number we have no idea of because we are currently limiting tests to those suspected of having Covid-19. That number would somewhat lessen the numbers.
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#5
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
My take is that one should look at the infected numbers on any given day and apply that number retroactively to the death rate after 14 days have passed...AND beyond.  Remember that the numbers of reported infections is rising hourly, so looking at today's infection numbers and applying what took a minimum of 14 days to generate in outcomes is going to understate the true death rate by quite a substantial margin.
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#6
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
Well, this is not encouraging at all.  Many experts have said that it's likely 80% of the earth's population will eventually get infected with COVID-19 before this ends. Baring some sort of miracle, if that's an accurate estimate, that means that with a current world population of 7.8 billion people, 80% or 6.2 billion will likely get infected.  Even if that 45% death rate is reduced to 25% (which could happen due to variables such as unreported cases)... even with those optimistic numbers, we could see 1.5 billion people dead as a result of COVID-19 (or more).

This would make the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic (50-100 million dead) seem like the common cold in comparison.

This is why I think we're going to see harder and harder lock-downs and quarantines in our near future with people being fined, gathered up, locked up, or worse if they're out-and-about.

Wow... just.... wow.   Confused
SuperSleeper
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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#7
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
I think I need to find a comedy or something light to watch on the TeeVee tonight to get my mind off this stuff.

Real life is getting downright scary.   Nervous
SuperSleeper
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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#8
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
I suggested to my husband that perhaps we should catch the virus early, while the medical system is still available. 99.99% joking of course.
Sleep-well
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#9
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
My personal opinion is there are likely 3-4x more undiagnosed cases than diagnosed. I believe 98-100% of these recovered and leaving these out of the equation skews the numbers so much they are not even worth looking at.
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#10
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
(03-26-2020, 08:56 AM)jeffdanger Wrote: I believe 98-100% of these recovered and leaving these out of the equation skews the numbers so much they are not even worth looking at.


I sure hope you're right.  That said, I think being overly optimistic based upon a "feeling" or "belief" that can't yet be supported by any real data can be dangerous.

I know you're not doing this, but overly optimistic attitudes can lead to bad things happening, like I've read about younger people mocking about the seriousness of this pandemic, using that as an excuse to have "Coronavirus parties" where large groups of young people gather in spite of the recommendations of health care leaders, with the attitude of "it can't affect us, why should we care?", or worse, ridiculing and laughing at this pandemic as the "boomer remover" like it's a good thing.

But I do hope you're correct in your beliefs.  I'm simply not sure you are, especially if you take into account what's going on right now in Italy which has an excellent heath care system.

I understand there is a human emotional need to remain optimistic.  I feel as though this is where a lot of people are now, clinging to some degree of hope & optimism as a coping mechanism, telling themselves that the "worst" will never come.  Completely understandable.

It's called "normalcy bias", and it can be a dangerous to ourselves & others if we persist in that condition in spite of the facts around us.  Those who live in this condition tend to deny the facts around them until it is too late.

I wish it were not so, but  viruses pay no attention to our hopes and feelings.   Unsure

But again, as a fellow human, I sincerely HOPE that you are right.
SuperSleeper
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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