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[COVID-19] Coronavirus REAL death rates
#21
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
(03-29-2020, 11:05 PM)Beej Wrote: In public health, mortality rates are typically calculated as the number of events over the population at risk, usually per 100,000 population.


Apples vs. Oranges, I'm afraid...

In public health the term "morality rate" is a very general term and can either mean the death rate for an entire population, a smaller group, or a rate due to a specific cause.

We're not talking about a general mortality rate here.  We're talking about the COVID-19 death rate, and the only proper way to figure that is by looking only at OUTCOMES for those people who are known to have already contracted the virus.  The entire population number cannot be used to determine the COVID-19 death rate.   That would be ridiculous.   Infection rates, yes, but not death rates for a virus.

Go back and read my first post.  That's the correct way to determine death rate for reported cases.  OUTCOMES--  That's what you look at, and that alone.  Anything else is simply incorrect and misleading.  Only two possible outcomes:  death or recovery.

This is not a matter of opinion... it's simply a FACT.  No amount of re-definition of terms will change the fact that the death rate for reported cases is much higher than what is currently being portrayed in the press.

I know we have a lot of people trying to put a happy face on all this mess.  There is no happy face with this virus.  Only FACTS will give you an accurate understanding of what's occurring. 

This isn't a matter of one person's opinion over another.   There's the RIGHT way to figure the COVID-19 death rate, and then there's the WRONG way.  You have to use the known data, not the unknown data (which by definition, is unknown).
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#22
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
SuperSleeper Wrote:Only two possible outcomes: death or recovery.

You missed the third option - avoiding infection.

Perhaps this thread has run its course now? We all know we're deep in sh*t and getting deeper. We all know a lot of people are going to die. That's enough. Does arguing about definitions and mathematical derivations serve any purpose? Let's get on and attend to the things we can each do something about.
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#23
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
I think you missed the purpose of this thread.  We're not talking about outcomes for those who are not infected.

We're talking about outcomes for those who are infected.

Throwing irrelevant data about non-infected people into a thread about the death rate for infected people is confusing the issue and quite frankly is dangerous, because it reinforces the false conclusion that "this virus is no worse than the common flu", which is the utter nonsense I'm hearing again, again and again.

This thread is about countering the "feel good" narrative we're so often hearing, which can cause complacency, where people let their guard down and subsequently become infected.

There IS something we can do about this, and that includes taking it very seriously and not mixing irrelevant data along with relevant data, which will only brings a false hope.

Yeah, I get it that people don't like to hear negative news.  If that's the case, they shouldn't be reading this thread.

This thread is about reality, not happy thoughts.  Go start a happy-thoughts thread if you like.
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#24
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
Thread back open upon request.
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#25
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
I want to get back to the statistics that were posted on the WorldMeter Website that Supersleeper referred to at the beginning of this thread.  Very few sites give us the detail of not only total cases and deaths, but this one breaks down the recovered cases, active cases and other important information.

China is reported to be near the end of their epidemic and is reporting very few new cases. Of 81,470 total cases, they now report 75,700 recoveries, 2466 active cases and 3304 deaths, the sum of is 81,470.  While the outcome of the final 2466 cases is unknown, the death rate is now at 4.28% excluding active cases. 

The situation in Italy is truely grim with 101,739 total cases, 14,620 recovered, 75,528 active cases and 11,591 deaths. Even compared to total cases today and assuming all the active cases recover, the death rate is 11.4%, but the deaths represent a whopping 44.2% of recovered individuals.  Things have not improved greatly since Supersleeper evaluated the situation in post 1 when deaths were half of what they are currently. 

It's too early to project where we will end up in the U.S. with 156, 818 cases, 5211 recoveries, 148736 active cases and 2871 deaths; however using the same calculus used by Supersleeper, the current death rate is 35.5%. Not so bad as Italy, but I'm glad we we are seeing the rate of new infections falling now; but the peak deaths are still 2-weeks away.

The inescapable question is, how did China get off so easy?  I suspect they have concealed the extent of illness and deaths, and of course there are almost no outside journalists in the country now.  I hope I'm wrong, but someday we are going to find out what happened there.  Meanwhile we have to get through what appears tobe a very deadly epidemic.
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#26
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
When you click on any country in the Linked site above, you can pullup detailed graphs.  This is the recovery vs death graph for Italy.  54% recover, 45% die.  This particular graph has not been posted for USA yet, but this is the one to watch.  Compare the death rate in China to any other country, and the disparity becomes clear.

[attachment=21469]

[attachment=21470]
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#27
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
Bloomberg News posted an article today that appeared on MSN's news feed.  They feel that China underrepresented the true CFR and death rates.
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#28
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
(04-01-2020, 02:12 PM)mesenteria Wrote: Bloomberg News posted and article today that appeared on MSN's news feed.  They feel that China underrepresented the true CFR and death rates.


Good, they're finally realizing that fact.  So much of the press has taken the Chinese Communist Party's coronavirus numbers as gospel truth for far too long now.
SuperSleeper
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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#29
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
The back-and-forth posts following Matt00926's original post have been deleted because it was a distraction from these discussions.

Sorry for the distraction folks, I just don't like it when people lie to my face and spread disinformation.

EDIT: Per request, Matt00926's account has been disabled.
SuperSleeper
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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#30
RE: Coronavirus REAL death rates
Just found these numbers
Selection criteria I used was Deaths + Recovered > 10.000

The last 2 columns were calculated
Code:
Location    Confirmed     Recovered    Deaths    Resolved    Deaths/Resolved
Italy              124,632     20,996    15,362     36,358            42%
United States      305,341     14,451     8,283     22,734            36%
France               68,605     14,008     7,560     21,568            35%
Spain              126,168     34,219    11,947     46,166            26%
New York      113,704     10,478     3,565     14,043            25%
Worldwide    1,192,028    245,981    64,316    310,297            21%
Iran               55,743     17,935     3,452     21,387            16%
Germany               95,785     15,072     1,431     16,503             9%
China               81,639     76,751     3,326     80,077             4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron...ted_States
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