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CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
#21
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
Again, this is nothing personal.  But I would caution against believing the crazy conspiracy theories that are out there now regarding this virus.   Just because it's on YouTube or Twitter does not make it a fact.  I've looked into the conspiracy theory that physicians are "being ordered to changed death certificates to COVID-19 as the cause of death, even when it was not the case" in some twisted attempt to inflate the numbers... there is absolutely NO verifiable proof that this is occurring.  You can't believe everything you see or read on the Internet.  If that's our standard of proof, then we'd be led to believe that the world truly IS flat.  

The charts and the real data are simply cold, hard facts.  Hardly what I would consider "meaningless".

Again, the "anecdotal evidence that some deaths were actually caused by lung damage from ventilators with improper settings" are exactly as you stated--- anecdotal evidence, which is again, a very low standard that proves nothing.   It's a statistically irrelevant "factoid".

I still maintain (even moreso now) what I expressed in THIS THREAD that the death rate is being incorrectly calculated and that the real death rates are FAR, FAR higher than what is being reported.  Anyone with any degree of basic math skills can read that thread and understand the basic math behind this conclusion.  Even accounting for the lack of testing, the oft-reported death rate of 2-3% is severely miscalculated and under-estimated.  But this will become painfully obvious as we move forward into May, June & July.  I won't have to argue the point by this fall - it will be obvious to all except the die-hard conspiratorial nut-jobs by then. 

My observation is that nearly every objection to what I've said regarding the real numbers stems from mostly personal opinions using statistically irrelevant objections  that are not at all driven by the data, but rather out of a desperate desire to paint as rosy a picture as possible upon this pandemic.  I completely understand the emotional response to all this -- it's only natural to want to have the best outcomes in the face of a very scary situation.  Normalcy bias is alive and well amongst many people around the world, but the facts remain.

The issue here is that we have a lot of people expressing personal opinions based upon flawed assumptions--- and their overly optimistic conclusions lends credibility to the thought by many that "this is no big deal".  That can endanger people's lives, and that is why I object to those who have accused me of "panicking" over all this.  It's not "panic" to calculate the numbers and come up with logical conclusions.  But people don't like to face up to the painful reality those conclusions portray, therefore they falsely accuse me of "panicking" or state that I'm "getting emotional" over all this or "causing hysteria".  They are utterly and completely wrong.

The statistics regarding this pandemic are not rocket science, and no degree of wishful thinking will change mathematical facts.  It's plain for all to see, at least for those who don't blind themselves with the drug of "Hopium".

Wait long enough, and the truth will become painfully obvious in a few short months.  What this means to me if someone trusts in the false hope that "everything is going to be fine, this is almost over already", they will go out and mingle unknowingly  with infected people and that could get them killed.

If that gets everyone's panties in a wad, so be it.  I'm not backing down from my conclusions at all.  As you can see, I don't play well with the "let's all just get along and be happy and try to think good thoughts" crowd.  Too-funny

I care enough about my fellow man to tell them the truth, even when that truth is ugly, terrible and downright scary.   People need the truth in order to react properly in a crisis.  We're not helpless in all this... we still have free will and the ability to mitigate our own risk, so when some folks act like "we can't do anything about it anyway" it reveals their defeatist attitude and their own insecurities.  This is a time to man-up and act and prepare accordingly, not to act like a whipped puppy shivering in fear with our tails between our legs.  This is why the COVID-19 Forum was created - so we can DO SOMETHING about all this, rather than always relying upon someone else to solve all our problems.

So, I'm sure someone will be along soon enough to accuse me yet again of "being hysterical".  No longer phases me-- I couldn't care less.

Cool
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#22
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
By the way, this bogus study that was published by the UK "Daily Star" claims that "Only 6% of coronavirus cases are actually being detected" and that "that worldwide cases have been 'dramatically understated' due to insufficient testing".  The study also claims that "Germany has detected about 15.6% of its infections, compared to just 3.5% in Italy and 1.7% in Spain."

These statements were created out of thin air in an attempt to promote an agenda.

I ask this:   How in the world can someone determine with any degree of precision exactly how many people HAVE COVID-19 but have not reported it?  The very nature of an "unreported" case means that no one yet knows about it!

This is a completely unknown and unknowable number... it would be similar to me saying that "15.6 of the earth's population have cancer but they don't know it yet".  There is no mathematical model that can reliably predict such an absurdity because basic logic tells you that these people do not know what they do not know.

And here comes the "agenda" - (a desire to not panic the herd) where the article suggests that "This could explain why countries like Italy and Spain have experienced a much higher mortality rate than Germany – because far fewer cases are being recorded, it skews the data and creates the illusion that a higher proportion of Covid-19 patients are dying than they really are."

AH!... See, it's not as bad as you thought.. so RELAX folks (they insinuate)... this is really not as big of a deal as you thought.   Rolleyes

There you have it folks - a completely unprovable, fake assertion that is based upon "data" that was taken from a purple unicorn's butt.

Again, there is NO WAY they know what percentage of people HAVE or DO NOT HAVE the virus without actual testing of every single citizen, so the statement above is based upon a false "feel good" assumption that this study actually figured out how many people exist out there who actually DO have COVID-19, but have never reported it to anyone.  Come on, surely these folks can do better than this non-sense.
Oh-jeez
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#23
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
While these are not specific orders, they are now the accepted practice being monitored by the CDC and the public health agencies... In essence, it is the government telling everyone how to report a death. COVID-19 Alert 2 (March 24, 2020) 

Quote:CDC – National Center for Health Statistics -- NVSS [National Vital Statistics System] COVID-19 Formal Reporting Guidance -- How to report cause of death on death certificates for cases involving COVID-19 Guidance for Certifying Deaths Due to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID–19)

Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths)

Certifying deaths due to COVID–19

If COVID–19 played a role in the death, this condition should be specified on the death certificate. In many cases, it is likely that it will be the UCOD [Underlying Cause of Death], as it can lead to various life threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible.
Ideally, testing for COVID–19 should be conducted, but it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate without this confirmation if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf  


Now, if someone died from a heart attack, kidney failure, pneumonia, respiratory distress or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and exhibits coronavirus-like symptoms (it could be the seasonal flu), their death certificate will list COVID-19 as a presumed contributing factor – a comorbidity – and wind up in the count of COVID-19 deaths. And, I am concerned that the numbers may be artificially inflated. 

The CDC does not appear to require a definitive confirmation that the virus caused death and there is a great deal of difference (not to the patient, but the statistician) between dying of COVID-19 and dying with COVID-19. 
Quote:Dr. Deborah Birx, White House Response Coordinator ... 

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem,” she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. “Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. “The intent is … if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that." 

It is a fact that the computation of the mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. (times 100 to convert to a percentage). 

If you do not know or undercount the number of cases (infected individuals), you cannot compute an accurate mortality rate. The esteemed epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, writing in the New England Journal of Medicine hypothesized that the fatality rate may be “considerably less than 1% because many people who are infected experience either no symptoms or very mild symptoms and therefore do not report. The fatality-rate statistics are skewed toward the people who do report."

The charts are meaningless in the sense they are either produced with modeled data and many of the models have flawed assumptions and dodgy data. When compared with reality at the local and state level, they are wildly biased upward. Or the increase in the actual number of cases is a direct function of the increasing number of people tested.

What we need is a statistically valid (at least to the 95 or 97% confidence level) sample that is tested for both the active virus (PCR testing) and the serological test for the antibodies. And to track co-morbidities with a detailed history and do follow-ups to check for immunity or re-infection. The samples should be taken at known hot spots and a broader nationwide sample. This would be a major study -- and not back-testing using data from "official sources." 

And, regardless of any charts, findings, reports -- we should all watch our asses until a reliable vaccine is found.

Forgot to add the old guidance -- https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/hb_cod.pdf ...

Quote:Doubt and cause of death

In cases of doubt, it may be necessary to use qualifying phrases in either PartI or PartII to reflect uncertainty ast o which conditions led to death. In cases where the certifier is unable to establish a cause of death based upon reasonable medical certainty, he or she should enter ‘‘Unknown’’ in the cause-of-death section. However, this should be shown only after all efforts have been made to determine the cause of death. An autopsy should be performed, if possible.
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius
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#24
Angry 
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - CATS
Just found this new study that may be of interest to cat and ferret owners...


Quote:Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes the infectious disease COVID-19, which was first reported in Wuhan, China in December, 2019. Despite the tremendous efforts to control the disease, COVID-19 has now spread to over 100 countries and caused a global pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have originated in bats; however, the intermediate animal sources of the virus are completely unknown.

Here, we investigated the susceptibility of ferrets and animals in close contact with humans to SARS-CoV-2.

We found that SARS-CoV-2 replicates poorly in dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks, but ferrets and cats are permissive to infection. We found experimentally that cats are susceptible to airborne infection. Our study provides important insights into the animal models for SARS-CoV-2 and animal management for COVID-19 control.


The full study: Susceptibility of ferrets, cats, dogs, and other domesticated animals to SARS–coronavirus 2    In PDF format.

Science 08 Apr 2020:eabb7015
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb7015
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius
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#25
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
srlevine1 Wrote:The reported fatalities are suspect because we are seeing public health departments ordering physicians to change death certificates to indicate anyone who dies -- and may be suspected of having COVID-19, even without a test or any confirming information -- must be reported as a COVID-19 death.

VS...

srlevine1 Wrote:While these are not specific orders, they are now the accepted practice being monitored by the CDC and the public health agencies...

So, which is it?  An "order" or "not an order"???  This is the type of inconsistency I see a lot of in these arguments.  It's either a specific order or it's not a specific order.   So now when the claim is challenged, the story changes to not sound so conspiratorial?

The CDC's Guidance for Certifying Deaths document that you posted (here) in no way does what you are suggesting when you stated:

srlevine1 Wrote:In essence, it is the government telling everyone how to report a death.

In fact, if you read the entire document, they are providing recommended suggestions on how to report a death, and the document makes it clear that the decision is ultimately up to the attending physician as to both the cause of death and whether or not COVID-19 was a contributing factor.  That's the way it should be, because only the local physician has access to all the facts of the case.

If there are comorbidities with a patient, this should not preclude a death certificate listing COVID-19 as a cause of death.  I am overweight, have diabetes and high blood pressure, but none of these conditions have caused me to die.  Now, if I contract COVID-19 and end up dying 30 days from now, people who use these false assumptions would say that "You can't say he died of COVID-19, because he had the comorbidities of being overweight, diabetes and high blood pressure!"  That's absurd... it was the COVID-19 that caused my death, since the other conditions, even combined together, did not cause my death prior to me contracting this virus.  The illogical behavior of many of these wild-eyed "hair on fire" types is leading them to false conclusions.

Ultimately, the CDC Guidance is in no way some sort of "order" or "requirement" as you originally portrayed.  Instead, it's a very reasonable and logical guideline which essentially gives the attending physician, coroner or medical examiner the final say for what is listed as the cause of death.  This is the way it's always been done - there are no major changes, no "orders", no "new requirements" at all that mandate medical personnel falsify or "skew" the reports to indicate a COVID-19 death where there's no firm evidence for that conclusion.

Read the Guideline's final paragraph, which sums it up:

Quote:Conclusion
An  accurate  count  of  the  number  of  deaths  due  to  COVID–19  infection,  which  depends  in  part  on  proper  death  certification,  is critical  to  ongoing  public  health  surveillance  and  response.  When a death is due to COVID–19, it is likely the UCOD and thus,  it  should be  reported  on  the  lowest  line  used  in  Part  I  of  the  death  certificate.  Ideally,  testing  for  COVID–19  should be conducted, but it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate  without  this  confirmation  if  the  circumstances  are  compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.

This essentially allows great leeway and bows to the determination of the local physician, who (they are recommending) should try to certify using a test (ideally), but with the understanding that tests may not be widely available, and under those conditions a report of COVID-19 can be made without a test result "if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty".  This again leaves the determination up to the local physician-- it's hardly a "mandate" or "order" as you claimed when stating that they are "ordering physicians to change death certificates".

Again, I'm trying to insert logic into this, and counter those who are running around with their hair on fire, all upset that there's some vast world-wide health-care/government conspiracy to over-inflate the COVID-19 numbers.  The facts don't line up with those radical claims, I'm afraid.

srlevine1 Wrote:Now, if someone died from a heart attack, kidney failure, pneumonia, respiratory distress or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and exhibits coronavirus-like symptoms (it could be the seasonal flu), their death certificate will list COVID-19 as a presumed contributing factor – a comorbidity – and wind up in the count of COVID-19 deaths. And, I am concerned that the numbers may be artificially inflated.

Again, a completely false assumption here.  The way this quote sounds is that if anyone dies from any type of ailment, it will be automatically be listed as a COVID-19 death and included in the COVID-19 death numbers.   Again, there's nothing in the CDC guidance that would cause a local physician to do such an absurd thing, unless that physician has determined that it's indeed truly due to COVID-19 when "the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty".  This again, leaves it up to the local physicians to determine the cause of death, and is certainly not the government or CDC mandating that they falsify and inflate the numbers.

I maintain that the charts I posted above are based on the real numbers-- numbers that everyone can look up and check for themselves.

srlevine1 Wrote:The charts are meaningless in the sense they are either produced with modeled data and many of the models have flawed assumptions and dodgy data.

The charts I posted were not produced with modeling data at all.  They are simply cold, hard facts charting the actual number of tested cases of COVID-19.   To suggest this hard data on reported cases is "dodgy" is misleading at best.   And if you look at those charts, there is no significant "flattening" of the curve at all-- at least not yet:

WORLDWIDE CASES:
[Image: attachment.php?aid=21734]

U.S. CASES:
[Image: attachment.php?aid=21735]

As far as quoting Anthony Fauci, I think he's doing a pretty good job now, but remember, he's not God and his record for accurate future projections and prognostications with regard to this virus is less than stellar.  Anthony Fauci is the one who only 2 months ago indicated that "Coronavirus is nothing to worry about and is no worse than the common flu bug".  This is not a dig at him, but rather a cautious warning that the situation is fluid and changes as time goes on.  In addition, government officials like Fauci walk a fine line of trying to mitigate the spread, while at the same time trying not to panic the sheep.

Either way, the ultimate responsibility of listing the correct cause of death falls to the local physician.  There is no "official mandate" or "order" that would push them to falsify the death certificate.  This is just another Internet rumor and plain old "hair on fire" hype published by people who see conspiracies in everything, or people who seem to think that the government lies about every single reported fact.  Yes, government officials do lie, but to assume they're ALL lying in ALL things ALL the time is utterly ridiculous.

Not saying this is the case with you, but in many instances, this starts to feel like we're having a debate with flat-earthers.  No matter how much logic and facts you use with them, no matter how many times you debunk their argument with facts, they keep coming back again and again with "Okay, so you proved that this one fact wasn't true, but what about this other fact?"   Or they simply ignore the fact that you've proved them wrong 10 times already, so they change the subject away from your debunking... and move to new, even more irrelevant "facts" they've viewed on YouTube.   Then we debunk that video, and they come back with even more "new" facts that they've uncovered to support their flat-earth theories... and that gets debunked, so they come back with 3 more illogical, unrelated "facts" that "prove" flat earth... and before long, we realize we're arguing with people who really have no common sense or ability to think clearly with logic.  It becomes a fruitless discussion.

When it reaches that point, it's probably time for me to bow out of the discussion, because people are going to believe whatever they want to believe and no amount of fact-checking will persuade them to abandon their pet conspiracy theories.

Time to drink more coffee for me...  I heard a rumor on YouTube that drinking 100% Columbian coffee cures COVID-19 in 95.6% of cases. Bigwink   Coffee
SuperSleeper
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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#26
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
(04-09-2020, 01:40 PM)SuperSleeper Wrote: Time to drink more coffee for me...  I heard a rumor on YouTube that drinking 100% Columbian coffee cures COVID-19 in 95.6% of cases.

It must be true! 1. It was on the internet, so it must be true. 2. You don't see any dead people drinking coffee, do you?
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#27
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
(04-09-2020, 02:02 PM)Crimson Nape Wrote:
(04-09-2020, 01:40 PM)SuperSleeper Wrote: Time to drink more coffee for me...  I heard a rumor on YouTube that drinking 100% Columbian coffee cures COVID-19 in 95.6% of cases.



It must be true!  1. It was on the internet, so it must be true.  2. You don't see any dead people drinking coffee, do you?


Yes, finally someone using "real" logic!    Time to put on a second pot for me...   lots-o-coffee

[Image: 3f9d4a8f1c04798ab0b8baa3d3dd9966.gif]
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#28
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
Nice image there Boss. That must be a representative of the overnight skeleton crew on coffee break.
Dave

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#29
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
"Columbian Coffee" is fake. Upgrade to Colombian Coffee.
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#30
RE: CPAP & COVID-19 - JUST WONDERING
(04-09-2020, 02:45 PM)Sleeprider Wrote: "Columbian Coffee" is fake.  Upgrade to Colombian Coffee.


In grade school, my teacher once asked the class to name something they we weren't good at, beginning with the letter C.

I raised my hand and answered "Spelling".
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