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[News] COVID-19
#21
RE: COVID-19
You ask why? Because since 1978 the federal government, through FEMA, has been telling states don't worry, we'll be there to clean up your mistakes.
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#22
RE: COVID-19
(04-01-2020, 03:38 PM)foxfire Wrote: You ask why? Because since 1978 the federal  government, through FEMA, has been telling states don't worry, we'll be there to clean up your mistakes.


Been reading fake news again? 

Mind providing a link to an actual federal government website where they stated anything even close to what you're claiming?
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#23
RE: COVID-19
Why is it then that after every hurricane, flood or other disaster FEMA rushes in? They don't stand back and say, "not our job"? It is called the Federal Emergency Management Agency, isn't it?

I don't disagree with what you said in your previous post, but there is a history that goes back decades of the federal government sending help to states in times of disaster. I just think states have gotten used to this and expect it.
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#24
RE: COVID-19
(04-01-2020, 04:03 PM)foxfire Wrote: Why is it then that after every hurricane, flood or other disaster FEMA rushes in? They don't stand back and say, "not our job"? It is called the Federal Emergency Management Agency, isn't it?

I don't disagree with what you said in your previous post, but there is a history that goes back decades of the federal government sending help to states in times of disaster. I just think states have gotten used to this and expect it.


FEMA helping the states in an emergency not the same as "telling states don't worry, we'll be there to clean up your mistakes".

If an individual state's officials came to the conclusion that they could do whatever they wanted without regard to consequences and the feds would come in later to clean up their mistakes, those state officials are living in fantasy-land.  There is no such guarantee by the federal government, or even any legislation or policies that might even come close to suggesting such a thing.

I do agree that whatever you fund, you'll get more of it.  If we make it so states are increasingly dependent upon the federal government, then yes, they're more likely to continue their dependence, and eventually act like they can't survive without federal help.  Or worse, complain that their "Big Daddy" federal government isn't taking care of their dependent "children" (the states).

The point is that states need to act for themselves, not grovel to the federal government and complain that the Feds aren't doing enough to solve their state's problems.  Today, some governors are shoving off all responsibility onto Big Daddy, when they've had a history of financial incompetence and mismanagement in their own state's budget for years.  And I disagree with many things Trump has done, so I'm not trying to support the side of the Feds.

It's called independence, accountability and taking ownership of a problem (not projecting our own guilt upon others). We used to believe in those concepts a long time ago.

Just my opinion, of course, and I've never been shy about posting it.   Too-funny
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INFORMATION ON APNEA BOARD FORUMS OR ON APNEABOARD.COM SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MEDICAL ADVICE. ALWAYS SEEK THE ADVICE OF A PHYSICIAN BEFORE SEEKING TREATMENT FOR MEDICAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SLEEP APNEA. INFORMATION POSTED ON THE APNEA BOARD WEB SITE AND FORUMS ARE PERSONAL OPINION ONLY AND NOT NECESSARILY A STATEMENT OF FACT.




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#25
RE: COVID-19
I think there it is a pretty small leap, from a state government point of view, from we'll be there if a hurricane, flood, tornado ravishes your state to, we'll be there when a pandemic hits your state. The knee-jerk reaction for the past several decades is that when a state runs out of its own resources it turns to the feds for help, and the feds have almost always sent that help.

You also need to keep in mind that many federal agencies (CDC, NIH) did spend some time planning for a pandemic, and up until 2018 the planning was coordinated in the NSC and DHS. It would be interesting to know if state governments and agencies were involved in this planning.
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#26
RE: COVID-19
Schwarzenegger: 'Shortsighted' for California to defund pandemic stockpile he built

https://www.politico.com/states/californ...lt-1269954
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#27
RE: COVID-19
(04-01-2020, 12:22 PM)mesenteria Wrote: I think this might be worth a few minutes of your time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gwGkQPnNOo

Quote:Dr. Duc Vuong, the World's #1 Weight Loss Surgeon, predicts 1-1.5 million coronavirus cases in the United States by Easter Sunday. This means approximately 20,000-30,000 deaths. Here are the numbers.

With all due respect, I am compelled to caution viewers:

(1)  Because a credentialed doctor makes a prediction, that does not mean that his numbers, assumptions, and projections are correct. 

In ths case, Dr. Duc Vuong, self-proclaimed as the "World's #1 Weight Loss Surgeon," is predicting 1-1.5 million coronavirus cases in the United States by Easter Sunday and suggesting this means approximately 20,000-30,000 deaths. He is not a virologist or an epidemiologist -- he is a general surgeon. And having valid credentials and experience in one field does not necessarily translate to credibility or reliability in another scientific discipline.

(2)  Even well-credentialed researchers like British Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson change their assumptions and estimates based on incoming data. In this case, Ferguson's shocking original estimates which informed government policy were modified days later because he changed his estimate of the virus's reproduction number, which implies a lower fatality rate than his research group initially assumed.

(3)  Dr. Duc Vuong appears to be a self-styled as a "social media influencer" and thus creates content to attract a larger audience. This automatically raises red flags when startling or news-worthy projections are issued in the hopes of a media pick-up and translation into a "viral" (pun intended) post.

(4)  Without adequate statistically valid random testing of the various cohorts in question, one simply does not know how lethal the virus may be in the general population -- or if we are likely to experience a second rebound peak as people leave their more sheltered environments. 

(5)  There is also a complicating factor to be considered in the death rate. It appears than some older people are using DNR (Do Not Resuscitate) orders or are denying "heroic" care to receive palliative treatment. For some, especially those who have underlying major medical issues, it appears preferable not to struggle to maintain a life that will be unpredictable, with no close support system, or be of short duration. Some studies are now suggesting that a portion of the people who died may have naturally died by the year-end from their underlying conditions. 


(6)  We have no estimate of the number of infected people who experience few symptoms or simply think they have a cold or the seasonal flu. These people do not show up in counts because they do not go to the hospital nor are they tested. However, they may still be carriers. In most venues tests for the active disease (not the antibody of past infection) are restricted to those cases presenting with recognizable symptoms or those in high-risk categories. 

We do not know what we do not know. So be careful in viewing panic-inducing materials.
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius
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#28
RE: COVID-19
Oh, I don't disagree with you at all.  At the top of the previous thread page I stated:

"I wonder what the 'actual numbers' are.  For me, this would seem to warrant an abundance of caution.  There is so much hype, disparity in reported CFR, reliance on the veridical information promulgated by governments of any description, variations in opinion from experts..."

Here, a self-professed expert has done a rudimentary calculation of what seems to be the worst case, using the numbers published by your own government.  He allows that me might be wrong, and states that he would love to be wrong, but that things look really bad as projected.  I offer his assessment out of ethical obligation so that people will know the full extreme, even when they want so badly to believe that it just can't be that bad.  


It might be...
Contrite, and wiser.
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#29
RE: COVID-19
(04-02-2020, 01:51 AM)mesenteria Wrote: Oh, I don't disagree with you at all.  At the top of the previous thread page I stated:

"I wonder what the 'actual numbers' are.  For me, this would seem to warrant an abundance of caution.  There is so much hype, disparity in reported CFR, reliance on the veridical information promulgated by governments of any description, variations in opinion from experts..."

Here, a self-professed expert has done a rudimentary calculation of what seems to be the worst case, using the numbers published by your own government.  He allows that me might be wrong, and states that he would love to be wrong, but that things look really bad as projected.  I offer his assessment out of ethical obligation so that people will know the full extreme, even when they want so badly to believe that it just can't be that bad.  


It might be...

Again, it amounts to pure self-promoting gratuitous speculation and it is scaring people -- possibly reducing their immune system response by adding to the stress they are experiencing. 

The Chinese numbers cannot be trusted. We are now finding that Italians are very loose in their reporting of deaths -- reporting someone who has a heart attack while being stricken with the virus as dying from the virus. That and an older population with high use of tobacco products since youth may be skewing the results and rendering the results

It is also likely that all of our mitigation efforts are simply shifting virus cases to a future second wave as many sheltering individuals are not getting the disease and building up natural immunity. Thus, we still have a large potential population of those senior citizens and those with underlying medical issues at future risk.
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius
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#30
RE: COVID-19
So, should we expose the most vulnerable now?  Or later.  Remember, all we have is fudged numbers.  The youth have not been spared, and are taking up some of the precious resources needed to take care of the most acute cases.  Shouldn't we err on the side of caution and string this out?  Isn't this what the meta is of the good surgeon?

You are right that stress has a deleterious effect on one's immune response.  So does learned helplessness.  So does imposed helplessness.  So does distrust of authorities and of the information they promulgate, often having to back track or to admit that they were optimistic.

My practice has always been to look to the margins.  Taking what pap passes for a muted or restrained response is often the safe way to go, but it's often not the best way, not in the long run.  I like to know what the outliers are and what they mean.  If this guy is an outlier, but turns out to have been largely right, would it not have been better to have taken some measure of his message?  God knows we have legions of naysayers already, people snorting in derision and saying it's all MSM hype and an attempt to coerce us all into quiescence and compliance.  I believe that is what the locomotive engineer in CA felt justified his illegal and ill-advised action yesterday.
Contrite, and wiser.
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